There are three variables in any economy which need to be reduced: inflation, unemployment, and debt; and three others which must be increased, including investment, growth, and export. There are also some intermediate variables that contribute to achieve those six goals, such as increasing the savings which help boosting investment and fighting poverty through reducing the unemployment rate, inflation, and so on.
There is no doubt that the Egyptian economy has suffered after the revolution. The following statistics were taken from a report aired on a programme on CNBC Arabiya. The presenter of the programme said that this report is based on data provided by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Emirates NBD.
Egypt achieved an economic growth rate of 4% in 2016 compared to 5.3% in 2010.
Inflation amounted to 24.4% in 2016 compared 13.6% in 2010.
The unemployment rate reached 12.8% in 2016 compared to 9% in 2010.
The external debt in US dollars reached nearly $60bn in 2016 compared to $35bn in 2010.
The domestic debt in Egyptian pounds reached EGP 2.7tn in 2016 compared to EGP 875bn in 2010.
The gross debt of GDP reached 100%, which means that Egypt’s total debt is equal to the total local production of Egypt. This is a very negative indicator.
Egypt’s balance of payments
Egyptian exports amounted to $24bn in 2010 compared to $20bn in 2016.
Egyptian imports reached $57bn in 2016 compared to $49bn in 2010.
Foreign exchange reserves registered $24bn in 2016 compared to $38bn in 2010.
Tourism revenues reached $3.4bn in 2016 compared to $11bn in 2010.
The US dollar exchange rate against the Egyptian pound recorded EGP 5.8 in 2010 compared to EGP 19 in 2016.
The poverty rate reached 25% in 2016 compared to 28% in 2010.
Egypt’s credit rating
Standard & Poor’s credit rating for Egypt stands at B- with stable outlook in 2016 and BB in 2010. Moody’s credit rating for Egypt was last set at B3 with stable outlook in 2016 and Ba2 in 2010. Fitch’s credit rating for Egypt was last reported at B with stable outlook in 2016 and BB+ in 2010.
According to the aforementioned data, we find that Egypt’s economy has declined compared to the previous period before the revolution.
This decline is normal because we are like a worker whose machine has stopped for maintenance.
These indicators witnessed a gradual improvement after the revolution.
The Egyptian situation is similar to other countries which have developed their economy after experiencing worse situations.
Egypt faces huge challenges, but we can overcome all the obstacles with hope and work which are the key factors of success on both personal and public levels.