Egypt accused Ethiopia on Saturday of operating the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in a “unilateral and hydrologically inconsistent” manner, saying abrupt and irregular water releases in recent weeks have caused pronounced fluctuations along the Blue Nile. Cairo said the instability forced it to open the Toshka spillway to preserve balance in its water system.
In a statement, the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation reported that Ethiopia released around 485 million cubic meters of water on 10 September 2025, before sharply increasing discharges to 780 million cubic meters on 27 September. The ministry said lake levels then dropped by nearly one meter—roughly 2 billion cubic meters of water—before outflows fell again to about 380 million cubic meters on 30 September.
The ministry noted that internationally recognized operating rules for major dams require reservoir levels to be gradually reduced from 640 to around 625 meters by the end of the hydrological year. Instead, according to the statement, Ethiopia closed GERD’s emergency spillway on 8 October, cutting releases to 139 million cubic meters and maintaining an average of only 160 million cubic meters per day through 20 October.
Officials said this pattern—sharp reductions to increase storage followed by sudden, large releases “far exceeding operational needs”—demonstrates the absence of a stable and technically sound operating plan.
On 21 October, outflows surged unexpectedly to 300 million cubic meters after Ethiopia reopened the emergency spillway, which is intended only for exceptional conditions. Releases then hovered around 320 million cubic meters per day for ten days before the spillway was closed again on 31 October.
From 1 to 20 November, average discharges climbed to about 180 million cubic meters per day, roughly 80% higher than the historical norm of 100 million cubic meters for the same period.
The ministry warned that such “sharp fluctuations” disrupt operations at downstream dams, whose managers must take precautionary steps to deal with sudden inflows.
It added that the Nile Revenue Committee, which monitors the situation continuously using hydrological models and satellite data, decided to open the Toshka spillway to absorb excess water and stabilize the system—delaying scheduled works to expand the spillway’s discharge capacity.
Despite the volatility, the statement emphasized that Egypt’s water system “remains fully stable and under control,” noting that the High Aswan Dam continues to serve as the country’s primary safeguard against unpredictable upstream releases. It reiterated Egypt’s commitment to professional, disciplined water management to protect national interests.
