A fragile calm has begun to return to the border regions between Pakistan and Afghanistan following days of deadly clashes that killed dozens in the worst violence between the two South Asian nations since the Taliban seized power in Kabul in 2021.
Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif said on Monday that the ceasefire agreement remains “fragile,” and its implementation depends on the Taliban’s ability to curb attacks by armed groups operating across the shared border.
The immediate ceasefire was brokered in Doha, Qatar, building on an earlier 48-hour truce that was facilitated by Qatar, Turkey, and China, Pakistani sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.
Following the agreement, Pakistan, which has long accused Afghanistan of allowing the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other militant groups to use its territory, reopened the Chaman border crossing in its Balochistan province for Afghan transit trade.
However, pedestrian movement at the Chaman-Spin Boldak crossing remains suspended, and Afghan drivers are now required to carry valid passports and visas. Regular trade and pedestrian traffic also remain suspended at the Torkham crossing, which connects Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province with Afghanistan’s Nangarhar province.
A senior Afghan minister welcomed Pakistan’s decision, telling Asharq Al-Awsat that it would “save traders from huge financial losses.”
From escalation to negotiation
Relations between the two neighbours have been severely strained in recent months, with Islamabad repeatedly accusing the TTP of using Afghan soil to launch attacks inside Pakistan. The situation escalated into frequent clashes along the border, particularly in Chaman, Spin Boldak, Bajaur, and North Waziristan, resulting in casualties on both sides and disrupting bilateral trade.
Mediation efforts by Qatar, Turkey, China, and Saudi Arabia paved the way for direct talks in Doha, where the two sides agreed to de-escalate through dialogue.
According to sources in Pakistan’s foreign ministry, the key terms of the ceasefire agreement include:
- An immediate cessation of hostilities, including border clashes, air operations, and military advances.
- Respect for territorial integrity, with Afghanistan ensuring its territory is not used by elements hostile to Pakistan, and Pakistan pledging not to violate Afghan airspace.
- A joint monitoring mechanismto address any ceasefire violations promptly.
- A follow-up meeting in Istanbulon 25 October to finalise a permanent framework and political agreement.
- A preliminary agreement to restore border tradeand the movement of people, seen as a crucial first step in building trust.
Challenges ahead
While the ceasefire has brought a sense of relative calm, significant challenges remain. Islamabad’s key demand is that the Afghan Taliban hand over TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud and other militants, said Qamar Cheema, executive director of the Sanober Institute, who is familiar with informal security briefings in Pakistan.
Analysts cautioned that monitoring the 2,600-kilometre border is a formidable challenge, and that even a minor violation could derail the fragile peace process.
A senior Pakistani official told Asharq Al-Awsat that the agreement was a diplomatic success for Pakistan, as it secured a written guarantee from Kabul that its territory would not be used against Islamabad.
In Afghanistan, the ceasefire was described by political analyst Sami Yousafzai as “fragile but very positive,” noting that both sides “now realise that continued conflict benefits no one.” However, he warned that the sustainability of the truce would largely depend on whether the TTP resumes its attacks inside Pakistan.
The recent escalation was also complicated by Afghanistan’s evolving diplomacy with regional actors. A high-level visit by the Taliban’s foreign minister to New Delhi, which included discussions on trade and political engagement, was closely monitored in Islamabad. Pakistani officials fear that strengthening ties between Kabul and New Delhi could provide India with new avenues of influence and intelligence-gathering along Pakistan’s western border, a pivotal area in its national security calculations.
