CAIRO: It is the “most interesting development in Egyptian politics in years, David Schenker wrote in Forbes magazine, referring to Mohamed ElBaradei’s unexpected appearance on the Egyptian political landscape.
During the last two weeks, former IAEA chief ElBaradei hit the international front pages due to the announcement of his possible candidacy for the Egyptian presidency in 2011.
Michael Slackman from the New York Times writes: “the governing party may be shaken enough so that President Hosni Mubarak will consider running for president again.
Now, domestic and international expectations for ElBaradei are high, but the fewest give him a realistic chance to outplay Mubarak or his son in the forthcoming elections.
“ElBaradei’s meteoric rise to the upper echelons of the opposition movement is a reflection of the disarray of opposition parties and their failure to tap into popular discontent and mobilize the population to take effective action, writes Khaled Diab in the Guardian.
Indeed, ElBaradei’s success indicates the fragmentation of Egypt’s political opposition, his attempt to merge the expectations of the Muslim Brotherhood and the secular opposition being likely to fail. Sarah A. Topol, for Newsweek, said, “Although the wave of support for ElBaradei shows that Egyptians hunger for political change, he won’t be able to channel idealistic fervor at the poll.
But Diab counters this prevailing opinion: “We should never underestimate the power of the people, even in a semi-authoritarian regime. And therein lies ElBaradei’s most powerful weapon.
Schenker adds: ElBaradei’s “flirtation with entering the race has, at least temporarily, energized a demoralized electorate. It remains nevertheless unclear if ElBaradei, seen as the long-awaited front runner of the opposition movement, will manage to broaden his popular support – currently composed of intellectuals and the youth – necessary for a victory.
In addition, ElBaradei faces constitutional obstacles hindering the deposal of his candidature. And Mubarak, threatened by the sudden appearance of a presidential opponent, will not do ElBaradei any favors – least of all change the constitution.
Foreign Policy reporter David Kenner writes that “given the abject state of the Egyptian opposition movement, any kind of legislative or constitutional victory is highly unlikely.
Sheera Frenkel from the Times has an even harsher sentence for ElBaradei: “There is little serious momentum for change in Egypt. The pro-democracy movement is dead. The main opposition Muslim Brotherhood remains silenced. The Mubarak regime is propped up with billions of dollars in US aid. It is more likely that the regime will replace him with his son, Gamal.
Nevertheless, ElBaradei has appeared on scene and is viewed as the most promising opponent to Mubarak in years, equipped with the image of an internationally and domestically high ranking personality, an advantage which “will keep him out of prison, but won’t get him on the ballot, Schenker writes.
In spite of all these analyses, Kenner observes: “If ElBaradei does decide to pursue a presidential run, he will have at least one factor working for him: the unmistakable appetite for change in Egypt after nearly three decades of Mubarak.
There are even voices criticizing ElBaradei’s attempt to shake up Egyptian’s political system: if he loses, this will tremendously discourage the opposition movements from any further attempts at inducing change.
“ElBaradei thinks he can unify Egypt’s fractured, demoralized opposition. But he might make things even worse, comments Topol in Newsweek, adding: “If he really makes a run, not only will he lose, but he would fracture the fragile coalition of Mubarak’s opponents, leaving them weaker and more demoralized than ever. That, in turn, would only empower the despotic president. If ElBaradei wants what’s good for the opposition, he should get out of the way.
