US President Donald Trump asserted on Wednesday that the United States maintains complete control over the Strait of Hormuz, characterising the American naval blockade on Iran as a “wall of steel,” even as Iranian officials dismissed the possibility of extending a temporary ceasefire.
In a post on the Truth Social platform, Trump stated that the US will continue to control the strategic waterway and that Tehran is powerless to respond. “They have no navy, they have no air force, and their remaining soldiers are unpaid,” Trump wrote. He added that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is “decimated and fleeing” and that the country’s leadership is unstable, claiming Iran is suffering from 300% inflation and dismissing their threats as “all talk and no action.”
Despite Trump’s assertions, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Wednesday that there are no discussions between Tehran and Washington regarding the extension of a ceasefire. The official stated that from Tehran’s perspective, the initial agreement had no start date and therefore nothing to extend, accusing the US of violating the interim pact within 48 hours before withdrawing days later. Current discussions, the official noted, are focused on the US returning to the memorandum of understanding and establishing a timeframe for its commitments.
The ongoing blockade and stalled negotiations are severely impacting global energy markets. The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its global oil supply forecast for the year, projecting a decline of 4.3 million barrels per day, or 4%. Marking a further reduction from its July estimate of a 3.7 million bpd drop, the IEA noted in its monthly report that the lack of an agreement to resume unhindered transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has pushed global supply expectations down to 102.02 million barrels per day, its lowest forecast for the year.
On the military front, Iran has adapted its offensive tactics to counter US defences. According to the New York Times, Iran exploited dwindling American interceptor stockpiles by launching waves of drones and missiles at three US bases in Jordan over a five-day period last month. Using advanced missiles capable of sudden course changes, Tehran forced the depletion of limited US Patriot missile reserves. On July 17, Iranian forces breached the air defences, striking prefabricated housing units at one base, killing three US soldiers and injuring more than 100. The Pentagon later acknowledged the attack damaged several aircraft and injured dozens of troops.
To weather the US blockade and sanctions, the Iranian leadership has implemented a “survival economy,” the Wall Street Journal reported. By rationing scarce goods, restricting foreign currency access, and shifting economic burdens to households, Tehran aims to maintain strategic imports and core state functions. While this approach deepens poverty and the national recession, it affords the Iranian leadership more time to stall in negotiations.
The publication noted that Trump’s strategy relies on the risky assumption that Iran will collapse before Washington loses its capacity to maintain pressure. With intermediaries warning US officials that Tehran is accustomed to sanctions and is more likely to escalate attacks than offer concessions, a prolonged stalemate threatens to push energy market disruptions and rising inflation onto the global economy ahead of the US midterm elections.
