OPEC+ has agreed in principle to a modest oil output increase of 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) following shipment disruptions caused by US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliatory actions, according to a statement after their monthly video conference on Sunday.
The decision, reached during a Sunday meeting of eight key members, followed debates on options ranging from 137,000 bpd to 548,000 bpd. The group, which includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman, has a history of raising production to cushion market disruptions
However, analysts noted that the group currently possesses little spare capacity to supplement global supply, with the exception of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Both nations are expected to face difficulties exporting oil until navigation in the Gulf returns to normal.
Shipments of oil, gas, and other commodities through the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most critical oil route, accounting for over 20% of global transit—have been at a halt since Saturday. The suspension followed a warning from Iran stating the area was closed for navigation.
Sources told Reuters that Riyadh has been increasing oil production and exports in recent weeks in anticipation of US strikes on Iran.
On Friday, Brent crude futures rose $1.73, or 2.45%, to close at $72.48 a barrel, the highest level since July, driven by fears of a broader Middle East conflict. US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed $1.81, or 2.78%, to settle at $67.02.
Middle East leaders have warned Washington that a war on Iran could push oil prices above $100 per barrel, according to Helima Croft, a veteran OPEC analyst at RBC. Analysts from Barclays also indicated that prices could reach the $100 mark.
Croft stated that the market impact of any significant increase in OPEC output would be limited due to a lack of production capacity outside of Saudi Arabia.
While OPEC+ consists of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, most production changes in recent years have been spearheaded by the eight members involved in Sunday’s meeting.
These eight members had previously raised production quotas by approximately 2.9m bpd from April through December 2025—representing roughly 3% of global demand—before pausing increases from January to March 2026 due to seasonal market weakness.
