India is facing a growing diplomatic challenge after Bangladesh renewed its demand for New Delhi to extradite former prime minister Sheikh Hasina, who fled to India in August 2024 and was sentenced to death in absentia by a Dhaka war-crimes court earlier this week over her handling of last year’s student protests.
India, which has long been a close ally of Hasina, has avoided committing to the request. New Delhi has said only that it remains “committed to the interests of the people of Bangladesh and engaging with all parties”, without indicating whether it intends to return the former leader — a move analysts say could further strain ties between the neighbours.
The sentence, issued by Bangladesh’s war-crimes tribunal on Monday, found Hasina guilty of incitement, issuing orders to kill and failing to prevent atrocities during unrest in which nearly 1,400 protesters were killed, according to UN investigators. The 78-year-old, who was forced from power in August 2024, was tried in absentia.
Judge Golam Mortoza Mozumder said the court had found “all elements constituting crimes against humanity” before handing down a single penalty — the death sentence.
Dhaka increases pressure; India remains non-committal
Since the verdict, Bangladesh has intensified calls for extradition, describing it as New Delhi’s “obligatory responsibility”. India’s foreign ministry has remained cautious, reiterating its commitment to stability in Bangladesh without addressing the extradition demand directly.
Analyst Kalol Bhattacharjee said the diplomatic language amounted to a “clear refusal”, signalling that India was unlikely to hand over a long-time ally.
“In regional terms, the message is that India does not abandon those who aligned themselves with New Delhi,” he said.
Other regional analysts expect India to consider treaty obligations and political factors carefully before taking any decision. Many believe an extradition is highly improbable.
Tensions between Dhaka and New Delhi have escalated since Hasina’s ouster. Bangladesh’s caretaker government has criticised Hasina’s public commentary from India, while anti-India sentiment has risen amid political turmoil.
China and Pakistan strengthen ties with Dhaka
China and Pakistan, India’s regional rivals, have sought to capitalise on the shift in Bangladesh’s politics. Caretaker prime minister Muhammad Yunus travelled to China in March — his first official foreign visit — securing loans, grants and investment pledges from Beijing.
What began as a humanitarian refuge for Hasina has become a complex diplomatic test for India, raising questions about how far New Delhi is prepared to go to shield a former ally.
Some analysts expect India to delay any definitive position until an elected government takes office in Dhaka, providing a more stable political context.
Limited options for New Delhi
Experts say India has no easy choices. One option might be to urge Hasina to cease public commentary — something seen as unlikely given her continued leadership of the Awami League. Relocating Hasina to a third country is another possibility, though few governments would accept a leader convicted of crimes against humanity.
Still, analysts say supporting Hasina would reassure India’s other regional partners that New Delhi does not abandon allies in periods of instability.
UN and rights groups express concern
The UN described the conviction as a “significant moment for victims” but said it had not monitored the trial and expressed regret over the imposition of the death penalty, which it opposes in all cases.
Amnesty International criticised the ruling, saying the trial was “unfair and flawed” and calling the death sentence “the harshest and most degrading form of punishment”.
Awami League faces uncertain future
Bangladesh’s caretaker government plans to hold elections in the first half of February. The Awami League, which dominated politics for decades under Hasina, has been sidelined: its activities were suspended in May 2025, and the Election Commission has since removed it from the official party register.
With many senior leaders jailed or in hiding, analysts say the party faces a “bleak future”.
Bhattacharjee said the party was in a precarious position amid an unpredictable political environment in Dhaka. “If elections take place in February, the Awami League will not play a major role,” he said.
Other analysts say discussions continue between Indian and Bangladeshi national security advisers on whether the Awami League can be reintegrated into the political process. They note the party’s deep historical roots and remaining support among sections of the population, arguing that an outright ban could be counterproductive.
Awami League figure Mohibul Hasan Chowdhury, now based in India, said the verdict was “pre-written” and that Hasina did not receive a fair trial. He described the tribunal as a “mock court” created through unlawful amendments by the caretaker administration.
Chowdhury insisted the party would survive.
“We were banned before and rose from the ashes. We will do so again,” he said.
Most analysts, however, believe the party’s revival would require significant leadership change and distancing from those linked to last year’s crackdown.
Meanwhile, Hasina and former interior minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal — also sentenced to death — retain the right to appeal only if they are arrested or surrender, according to defence lawyer Muhammad Amir Hussein.
