Something unsettling is brewing behind closed doors. US President Donald Trump’s visit to the Middle East is unlike any previous visit by an American leader. The timing, the agenda, and the choice of countries—Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, with Israel conspicuously absent—raise questions no one seems willing to answer. Why now? Why these states? And how has Israel, the long-cherished ally of the White House, been left out of a tour led by a president historically devoted to its desires?
The regional landscape has shifted, and Trump knows full well that the road to restoring American dominance no longer runs through outdated alliances. In his playbook, there is no room for sentiment or nostalgic loyalty. What is taking shape is a comprehensive expansionist project—not merely economic, as some narratives suggest, but a political and security-driven design aimed at recalibrating the balance of power in favour of a new Washington order. An order that recognizes Israel’s security cannot be sustained by appeasing Netanyahu’s increasingly extreme government.
The clash between Trump and Netanyahu is no longer a secret. Their mutual grievances have spilled into public view. Trump accuses the Israeli Prime Minister of deliberately stalling normalization talks and of attempting to drag the US into reckless confrontations with Iran—driven more by Netanyahu’s personal political survival than by strategic logic. Reliable reports reveal that Trump was furious upon learning of Netanyahu’s alleged efforts to coerce Trump’s former National Security Advisor into authorizing military action against Iran without full White House coordination.
Even more telling is Trump’s recent readiness to sideline Israel from key decision-making forums on critical regional files. Recent high-level US–Gulf meetings over Yemen’s ceasefire and Gaza reconstruction projects were conducted without Israeli participation—something unheard of in decades of US foreign policy.
At the same time, Trump is seeking to expand US influence through unconventional avenues: a landmark investment agreement with Gulf states worth hundreds of billions of dollars, and a provocative plan to transform Gaza into an open economic zone under direct American oversight. What some dismissed as an electoral fantasy carries deeper strategic implications. Trump wants to seize Gaza not out of concern for the Palestinians or a desire for a fair settlement, but to neutralize a card long exploited by Iran and Hamas to destabilize Israeli security and extort Washington.
Trump understands that Israel’s real security cannot be achieved through more blockades and bombardments, but by creating a regional environment that weakens hostile actors, cuts off their financial and political lifelines, and turns Israel from a constant target into a regional economic partner. In this vision, Israel will not enjoy peace while lurching further to the religious far-right or by stubbornly sabotaging any potential settlement with the Palestinians.
Simultaneously, Washington under Trump’s revived leadership aims to counterbalance the growing Russian and Chinese presence in the region. Control over energy resources, strategic maritime routes, and arms deals is slipping from American hands. Trump recognizes that saving US dominance in the Middle East now depends on the Gulf—not on a diplomatically fatigued Tel Aviv, rapidly losing moral and political capital in Western public opinion.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu continues his political manoeuvres, more concerned with consolidating domestic power than preserving relations with Washington. His partisan posturing and hard-line stance in Gaza have repeatedly embarrassed the American administration—so much so that murmurs are emerging within key US policy circles suggesting Netanyahu is becoming a strategic liability no longer worth the cost.
The confrontation is delayed, but inevitable. Trump’s visit will be a defining moment. Either Israel returns to the American fold under new terms, or a phase of recalibrated alliances begins—one that might sideline Tel Aviv. The Gulf stands to emerge as the greatest beneficiary of this shift, having secured a privileged negotiating position amid this geopolitical realignment.
No one can fully predict what will unfold after Trump’s visit. What is certain, however, is that the old landscape has crumbled. The Middle East is entering a ruthless, realist era of recalibrated alliances. Trump no longer tolerates symbolic roles or conditional partnerships. A leader is returning to impose the logic of power—even if it comes at the expense of his oldest allies.
Dr. Marwa El-Shinawy – Academic and Writer
