For decades, Israel has anchored its national security doctrine on preventing adversaries from acquiring nuclear capabilities. From Iraq’s Osirak reactor to Syria’s aborted nuclear ambitions, this doctrine has underpinned a series of direct and indirect confrontations that have deepened strategic tensions across the Middle East. Today, a new chapter unfolds — with Iran at its centre.
The Strike: Doctrine in Action
Amid exceptional regional volatility, Israel launched a sweeping military operation deep within Iranian territory. Dozens of advanced aircraft penetrated Iranian airspace, targeting nuclear infrastructure, missile systems, and command and control centres. The operation was swiftly hailed as one of the most intricate in modern military history in terms of deception, planning, and execution.
But the assault extended far beyond aerial bombardments. Intelligence infiltrations and covert ground operations preceded the strike, with Israeli special forces reportedly embedded inside Iran for months. These units laid the groundwork for sabotage, coordinated detonations, and the targeting of senior military officials.
The Deception: Calm before the Storm
In the weeks leading up to the strike, headlines from Tel Aviv were dominated by domestic political crises — debates over conscription laws and rumours of coalition collapse. Simultaneously, American diplomatic envoys publicly floated the prospect of renewed nuclear talks with Tehran. Iran’s leadership, lulled into a false sense of diplomatic reprieve, remained unaware that the countdown to one of the region’s most consequential military operations had already begun.
The American Role: A Silent Partner
Behind the façade of cautious statements and nominal objections, it became increasingly clear that the United States — under President Trump — tacitly endorsed the Israeli operation. Washington not only tolerated but actively helped orchestrate the deception strategy. The Trump administration, long sceptical of engaging Tehran diplomatically, viewed military confrontation as a strategic necessity. Israeli action aligned neatly with American objectives of curbing Iran’s growing regional influence.
Tehran under Fire: Shattered Illusions
The operation dealt a severe blow to Iran’s carefully curated image of military invulnerability. For years, Tehran touted its formidable missile systems and layered air defences — only to witness Israeli jets operate with impunity over its skies, incinerating sensitive sites and severing command networks. The psychological impact was immense: the re-emergence of assassinations, data breaches, and mysterious explosions — now unmistakably sovereign in scale — sent a clear message that Iran’s nuclear path is strategically untenable.
Iran’s Response: Predictable and Contained
Tehran’s response followed a familiar pattern: missile launches, drone operations, and rhetorical defiance. Yet Israel did not even order its citizens into shelters — a deliberate gesture underscoring its disregard for Iran’s retaliatory capabilities. International focus quickly shifted from Iran’s counterattacks to the implications of Israel’s strike and what it revealed about the regime’s vulnerabilities.
The Real Target: The Regime behind the Programme
A sober reading of these developments suggests that Israel’s objectives go far beyond delaying nuclear progress. The deeper target is the very regime that sustains and commands these ambitions. From Tel Aviv’s perspective, the crisis originates not with centrifuges and reactors, but with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the regional networks it controls. Neutralising the nuclear threat requires dismantling the ideological and military architecture behind it.
What Lies Ahead?
The coming days are fraught with uncertainty. Israeli operations appear far from over and may soon reach even more critical targets — within Tehran and along its unstable borders. Israel seems determined to reshape the strategic landscape before Iran regains its balance. Meanwhile, Western powers are caught between containing escalation and avoiding a broader regional war.
Tehran, for its part, may activate proxy groups — Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and others — to wage asymmetric campaigns. Yet such actions are unlikely to alter the core military equation. If anything, they may provide Israel with justification to escalate on multiple fronts.
Conclusion: A Turning Point for Iran
The Iran of yesterday no longer exists. Its airspace has been violated, its nuclear infrastructure crippled, and — most crucially — its leadership has suffered a symbolic defeat far greater than the physical damage inflicted.
This moment could mark the collapse of the “Iranian deterrent myth” and the beginning of a redrawn regional power structure. In this new reality, Israel is no longer simply targeting a nuclear programme — it is seeking to dismantle a theocratic-political project it considers the most severe existential threat to its survival.
Dr. Hatem Sadek – Professor at Helwan University
