North Africa and the Middle East have made significant progress in reducing deaths and disability linked to injuries caused by fire, heat and hot substances over the past three decades. However, the trend is not entirely reassuring, as the number of people affected continues to rise in many countries amid population growth and ageing.
The study, published in Tropical Medicine and Health, analysed data from 21 countries and territories in the region using the Global Burden of Disease 2023 database. It tracked cases, prevalence, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) — years of healthy life lost due to premature death or disability — between 1990 and 2023.
According to Peiyuan Tang, from the Department of Orthopedics at Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, and co-first author of the study, the region has recorded a “substantial reduction” in age-standardised death and health-burden rates. The age-standardised death rate fell from 3.7 to 1.9 deaths per 100,000 people, while the disability-adjusted life year rate declined from 221.2 to 104.1 per 100,000.
However, Tang and his colleagues noted that falling rates do not mean the problem has disappeared. The absolute number of people living with these injuries increased in most countries, with prevalence rising by more than 300% in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The study suggests that demographic pressure is a key factor, as population growth and ageing have increased the number of people at risk.
The study also identified a recent warning sign. After years of decline, the age-standardised incidence rate began rising again between 2020 and 2023, particularly among women. The researchers did not identify a specific cause for this shift but said it requires closer monitoring.
The picture also varies significantly across countries. Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait were among the fastest-improving countries, while Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Lebanon recorded stagnant or worsening trends. Iraq and Libya had among the highest burdens in 2023, while Türkiye and Kuwait recorded some of the lowest death and disability rates.
The researchers concluded that prevention efforts should focus on the most vulnerable groups, particularly children and older adults, while strengthening emergency care, treatment and rehabilitation.
The findings indicate that while the region has made substantial progress in reducing the health burden associated with fire, heat and hot-substance injuries, continued efforts are needed to address rising case numbers and persistent disparities across countries.
