Israeli strikes on Iran early Friday damaged a key nuclear site and killed several senior military officials and nuclear scientists, but did not destroy Iran’s nuclear programme, according to reports reviewed by The New York Times. Much of its nuclear infrastructure remains.
The strikes reportedly destroyed an above-ground nuclear fuel production facility and power centres at Natanz, Iran’s largest uranium enrichment site. The targeting of senior Iranian nuclear scientists is part of an ongoing Israeli campaign to eliminate expertise needed for a nuclear bomb.
However, the initial attacks apparently spared Iran’s stockpile of near weapons-grade enriched uranium, a possibly “deliberate” decision, the newspaper suggested. IAEA inspectors say this stockpile is near Isfahan, a major nuclear site and research hub that the first wave of 200 Israeli jets, missiles, and drones avoided.
“Limited” Damage
Experts reviewing satellite imagery said damage to Iranian nuclear facilities from the first wave appeared “limited.” David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security told Reuters, “The first day was targeting things that could be achieved with surprise; assassinating leaders, going after nuclear scientists, air defence systems, and the ability to retaliate.” He added, “We can’t see any visible damage at Fordow or Isfahan. There is damage at Natanz. There is no evidence that the underground site was destroyed.”
Jeffrey Lewis, a non-proliferation expert, described Natanz damage as “medium,” saying Israel “destroyed a pilot fuel enrichment plant and some support buildings associated with the power supply.” He noted no visible damage to underground enrichment facilities.
The Israeli military said a second wave targeted Isfahan but left the fuel stockpile untouched, focusing instead on labs converting uranium gas to metal, a late stage in weaponisation. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi confirmed, “We have seen the fuel there recently,” noting recent inspections.
The Spared Stockpile Mystery
The New York Times questioned why Israel avoided the fuel stockpile, Iran’s fastest route to a small arsenal and the “core of the rationale” for the attack given by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “Iran has produced enough highly enriched uranium to make nine nuclear bombs… nine,” Netanyahu stated, warning Iran could produce a weapon “maybe within a year, or a few months… maybe less than a year.”
Israeli officials did not explain sparing the stockpile, though the newspaper suggested Isfahan could be a future target. U.S. President Donald Trump warned Friday, “There’s more to come… a lot more,” adding future attacks would be “brutal.”
Independent experts believe avoiding Isfahan was deliberate. Jon Wolfsthal of the Federation of American Scientists suggested Netanyahu “feared a radiological incident or that they believe this pressure will lead Iran to give up its stockpile on its own.”
Radiological Leak Fears
A “radiological leak” is a genuine concern. Bombing the Isfahan fuel storage could release radioactive material, effectively creating a “radiological bomb.” Israel is historically sensitive to this risk, attacking Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981 before it was fuelled. It similarly struck a North Korean-built facility in Syria.
Alternatively, Israeli officials might believe they can prevent Iran from further enriching its uranium to the 90% needed for bombs, a process U.S. intelligence estimates takes days or weeks.
Iran’s Options
With Natanz reportedly “severely damaged” according to Grossi, Iran might move fuel to the smaller Fordow facility, deep inside a mountain. Grossi estimates it is 800 metres deep, likely immune to Israel’s bunker-busters. The Trump administration has indicated it will not supply the giant U.S. bunker-busters designed for such targets.
Mark Dubowitz of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies said, “the conventional wisdom for years has been that Israel does not have the capability to destroy Fordow without U.S. military support,” noting Washington possesses 14-tonne Massive Ordnance Penetrators.
Bet on Assassinations
Israel also targeted key scientists. Iranian media reported six assassinations, including physicist Mohammad Mahdi Tehranchi, president of Azad University, linked to nuclear activities. Another was Fereydoun Abbasi, former head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, who survived a 2010 bombing. Abbasi subsequently became a public face of the programme, insisting on its peaceful nature and dismissing evidence of a secret weapons project as “Israeli fabrication.”
