The Egyptian Center for Public Opinion Research, Baseera, conducted a public opinion poll on Egyptians’ knowledge about the referendum on the constitution and their intentions towards the participation in the process, along with other related issues.
The results show that 92% of Egyptians know about the referendum on the new draft of the constitution, while 8% of Egyptians didn’t know about the referendum, this percentage increasing up to 12% in the rural areas. The percentage of Egyptians who didn’t know also rises from 3% in urban governorates to 7% in Lower Egypt and to 14% in Upper Egypt.
Among those who know that there is an expected referendum in the upcoming days, 76% said that they knew of the date of the referendum while 24% said they didn’t. The percentage of those who know when the referendum will take place rises up to 32% in Upper Egypt in comparison with 21% in urban governorates and Lower Egypt. It is worth noting that one-third of youth aged between 18-29 years old have no idea about the referendum date, compared to only 17% of Egyptians aged 50 years old or above.
Around 76% of Egyptians said they intend to vote in the referendum, while 14% said they will not vote, and 10% have not decided yet. The percentage of those who will vote in the referendum rises from among youth aged 18-29 years old at 70% to 81% among Egyptians aged 50 years old or above. The percentage of those who have not decided yet to vote in the referendum decreases from 12% among youth aged 18-29 years old to 7% among Egyptians aged 50 years old or above. There are no obvious discrepancies among Egyptians with different levels of education.
Asked about the reasons of not voting in the referendum, 22% said they have personal reasons not to participate, while 13% said they feel that their vote will be useless; 11% said they do not engage in any political events and 9% said they will not vote because they are not satisfied with the new constitution.
As for those who intend to vote, 74% said they will vote “yes”, while 3% will vote “No”, and 23% said they have not decided yet. The percentage of the approval rises from 60% among youth aged 18-29 years old to 84% among Egyptians aged 50 years old or above. The percentage of those who haven’t decided yet decreases from 35% among youth aged 18-29 years old to 14% among Egyptians aged 50 years old or above.
About 57% of Egyptians expect that the referendum will be fair, while 5% say it will be fair only if some conditions are fulfilled, some of which include, for instance, judicial supervision, army security of the poll precincts and prevention of Muslim Brotherhood campaigning near polling centres. Twelve percent believe the referendum will not be fair while 27% said they do not know.
It is remarkable that until the date of this opinion poll, 59% of Egyptians have not read the constitution yet, 36% of them read some parts of it, and only 5% have read it. The percentage of those who have not read the constitution rises from 35% among those with university education to 69% among those who have less than intermediate education.
The poll was conducted using landline and mobile telephones on a sample size of 2068 ages 18 or older nationwide. All interviews were conducted during the period 24 to 26 December 2013. The response rate was approximately 65%, while the results margin of error is less than 3%.