If you want to get a sense of which way the wind is blowing in a society, you should consult its youth or its best opinion pollsters. Last month, I had the chance to do both in Dubai, and in the process learned about significant changing attitudes and new trends in the Arab region. I participated in a seminar with 50 mid-level Dubai public-sector officials, many in their 30s and 40s. Though not strictly “youths, they very much embodied youth’s desire to soak up new knowledge and experiences, and to crystallize their personal and national identity and their place in the world. The venue of the gathering itself was noteworthy: the new Dubai School of Government, established in conjunction with the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, to provide top quality executive training and Master’s-level degrees to private and public-sector students. This was a statement that Dubai, along with others like Qatar and Abu Dhabi, have embarked on developing excellence in human capabilities, finally transcending the earlier state-building emphases on infrastructure and basic human services. Dubai’s indoor ski slope was intriguing to visit, I thought, but its Harvard-affiliated school of government, headed by the respected economic historian Tarik Youssef, was much more meaningful. Spending the day with the Emirati executives suggested to me that new winds were blowing in Gulf societies: educated nationals are prepared to work and study to build meaningful societies, while also expressing strong political and emotional views on global and regional Arab-Islamic issues. This third wave of Gulf nationals, since statehood and successive oil-fuelled booms, is not only well educated, but is also undergoing life-long education. Its basic needs are amply met, but, annoyingly, it often finds itself at the receiving end of the world’s mistrust or scornful envy. The new phenomenon in the Gulf that I observed was a nuanced sense of citizenship and identity that was not simplistically black or white in its sentiments or allegiances. It also did not hesitate to express itself in public. To better understand this important evolution, by good fortune I was able at the same gathering to hear the respected American pollster John Zogby, who conducts regular public opinion polls in the Arab world. He shared his observations on recent trends he has identified from his annual polls in six countries that reflect the entire Arab region (Morocco, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia). Two important points he made confirmed my feeling that significant change was underway in this region: An Arab middle class with global values was emerging, and Arab populations seemed to be moving toward greater identification with their individual countries, rather than primarily expressing wider pan-Arab or pan-Islamic sentiments. I chased him down after his lunch talk and asked him for more details of his findings. He said that in his annual polls in the four years 2001-2004, the majority across the region identified themselves in terms of their broad Arab or Islamic identity. The 2005 poll broke with this trend, as a majority of respondents identified with their country. He theorized – proof or disproof will emerge from subsequent surveys – that one reason for this change was “disappointment and disillusionment with the results of pan-Arab policies and attitudes, including a sense of humiliation, betrayal and anger at events in Iraq, Palestine and other parts of the Arab world. Younger Arabs, especially educated ones with good prospects in the globalized economy, simultaneously sense some positive changes in their own societies – a reason to be optimistic, leading to rising expectations. This reflects a significant difference in attitudes from previous years. Zogby’s polls also suggest that a middle class with globalized, modern values is emerging in some countries, particularly in the well-off Gulf states. “There’s no question that especially among youth under the age of 30 we are seeing tectonic shifts in attitudes, expressed in a modern view of the world. We sense optimism, a need for personal fulfillment, rising expectations, job-related personal growth, a demand for better health, education and professional opportunities, along with continued strong identification with the family and stability, he explained. He offered as one sign of this trend the almost total absence of a gender gap in answers to the survey questions – even on most gender-related issues. Strong majorities in most Arab countries, for example, found it acceptable for women to work outside the home, with under-30-year-olds even more affirmative than their parents. Zogby is now polling three Gulf states to ascertain more fully if a distinct middle class is indeed emerging, and to know more about its needs, values, aspirations and consequences. “The under-30 Arabs collectively are this region’s first modern global citizens. They want to be heard and to make a difference. This is not your grandfather’s Arab world, he said. My conclusion: Enjoy the bizarre ski slope in Dubai, but also look into the eyes and minds of the local skiers, who have something to say about ever evolving generations of Arabs.
Rami G. Khouri writes a regular commentary for THE DAILY STAR.
