US-led efforts to reach a settlement for the war in Ukraine are at risk of stalling as President Donald Trump’s administration shifts its focus toward the escalating conflict in the Middle East, European diplomats and officials said.
The redirection of Washington’s attention toward the war with Iran has eased pressure on Russia, postponed scheduled peace talks, and reduced the supply of weaponry to Ukraine, according to European diplomats cited by the Financial Times. European officials warned that Moscow is currently benefiting from rising energy prices and a reduction in the threat of new sanctions, complicating the prospects for an agreement to end the war.
Peace talks reach “danger zone”
Negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian officials, mediated by the United States, have entered what one senior European official described as “the danger zone.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed a “pause” in the process, stating that the Americans have “other priorities.”
The most recent round of tripartite peace talks took place in Geneva on Feb. 17-18. A subsequent round, scheduled for Abu Dhabi on March 5, was postponed following US-Israeli strikes on Iran, with no new date or venue established. “The Middle East has severely redirected political attention away from Ukraine,” one EU diplomat said. “For us, and for Ukraine, this is a disaster.”
Competition for military resources
The shift in priorities has direct implications for the battlefield. EU member states have been informed that US arms shipments, particularly air defence systems, will be delayed as Washington prioritises clients in the Middle East.
EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas told the Financial Times that the competition for military resources between the two regions is “definitely a problem,” noting that America’s attention is clearly fixed on the Middle East.
Economic “lifeline” for the Kremlin
The conflict with Iran has provided Russia with an unexpected economic “lifeline” by driving up global energy prices. This surge has helped the Kremlin generate additional revenue estimated at $150m per day. Furthermore, the US has reportedly eased pressure on India regarding its purchases of Russian oil, leading to an increase in tankers heading toward the Indian Ocean.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remarked that Washington’s shift “certainly does not help peace.” While Russian President Vladimir Putin has avoided direct criticism of Trump—likely to prevent further US alignment with Kyiv—he has shown no readiness to make concessions in negotiations. During a call on Monday, Putin reportedly suggested Russia could mediate to end the Middle East conflict.
Diplomatic friction and US hesitation
European leaders have attempted to keep Ukraine at the centre of the international agenda. French President Emmanuel Macron hosted Zelenskyy in Paris on Friday to counter what he termed the “eclipse effect” caused by the Iran war. Additionally, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited the White House to advocate for increased pressure on Moscow, presenting maps and data to highlight the necessity of continued support.
However, sources familiar with the discussions indicate that Trump remains unconvinced of Ukraine’s strength and appears disinclined to discuss the matter in detail. Over the past week, US officials reportedly informed European counterparts that no additional sanctions would be imposed on the Russian oil sector.
“The US administration has consistently avoided pressure on Moscow, focusing instead on providing incentives to the Kremlin,” said Andrew Weiss, Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He added that the US negotiating team has relied heavily on “improvisation” in their dealings with the Kremlin.
Stalemate in negotiations
While White House officials maintain that Trump remains “optimistic” about a diplomatic resolution and claim “tremendous progress” has been made, participants in back-channel efforts suggest the process is losing momentum.
Russia has rejected European calls for a larger role in the talks. Peskov stated that Europeans “do not want to help the peace process” and accused them of encouraging Ukraine to continue the war. He added that Russia remains confident in its military position: “The situation on the front is positive for us. We are advancing and approaching the achievement of our goals.”
Ukrainian officials, meanwhile, maintain that Russia is “not serious” about ending the conflict, citing Moscow’s adherence to demands that Kyiv considers unacceptable.
