Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region is preparing for a potential return to armed conflict as local authorities accuse the federal government of violating the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement through drone strikes and military escalation.
The warnings come amid shifting regional dynamics, with the Ethiopian government accusing Eritrea of mobilising and funding armed groups within Tigray. According to reports from the Associated Press, observers fear a potential alliance between Eritrea and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)—former enemies during the 2020-2022 war—against the Ethiopian federal forces.
Tigrayan officials claim the federal government has breached the cessation of hostilities by launching drone strikes. Conversely, Addis Ababa has expressed concern over Eritrea’s involvement along the shared border. The Ethiopian military has reportedly begun calling up reserve forces in response to the growing instability.
Tensions have been further inflamed by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s recent assertions regarding Ethiopia’s need for direct access to the Red Sea. Earlier this month, Abiy told lawmakers that Ethiopia and the Red Sea “cannot remain separated forever,” referring to territory lost when Eritrea gained independence in 1993.
Yemane Gebremeskel, Eritrea’s information minister, dismissed the Prime Minister’s ambitions as a “pathological illusion.” Fearful of a military move against the port of Assab, Eritrea has reportedly sought a rapprochement with TPLF leaders, though it officially denies any such alliance.
The previous conflict, which ended in November 2022, resulted in thousands of deaths and was marked by widespread allegations of sexual violence and the use of starvation as a weapon of war. Residents in the regional capital, Mekelle, are reportedly seeking ways to leave the area, fearing a return to the communications blackouts and travel restrictions that defined the previous two-year siege.
Recent violence has already disrupted regional transport. On Jan. 29, Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to Tigray following clashes between federal forces and Tigrayan fighters in Tselemti, a disputed area between the Tigray and Amhara regions. While flights resumed on Feb. 3, the skirmishes were followed by a drone strike that Tigrayan authorities say killed one person and wounded another. The Ethiopian military has not issued a public response to these allegations.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has called for all parties to exercise restraint, a sentiment echoed by the European Union and Britain. The British government has formally advised its citizens against travelling to the region.
Since taking office in 2018, Abiy Ahmed has sought to project Ethiopia as a rising global power, though his tenure has been repeatedly challenged by internal conflicts and regional disputes.
