Pro-European Union candidates have shown strong performances in elections held in Poland, Romania, and Portugal, where they faced challenges from nationalist, right-wing parties.
In Poland, Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, a candidate for the ruling centrist Civic Coalition (KO), secured a narrow lead in the first round of presidential elections. In Romania, centrist Nicușor Dan won the presidential run-off in Bucharest. Meanwhile, in Portugal, Democratic Alliance leader and current Prime Minister Luís Montenegro won parliamentary elections but fell short of a majority.
According to Bloomberg, Trzaskowski won the first round of the Polish presidential election with 31.2% of the vote. In Romania, centrist candidate Nicușor Dan won the second round with over 5.83 million votes.
Trzaskowski’s 31.2% placed him ahead of Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, who received 29.7%. The margin was significantly tighter than the 4-7 percentage points indicated in pre-vote opinion polls.
If confirmed, this result means Trzaskowski and Nawrocki will compete in a run-off election scheduled for 1 June. This will determine whether Poland maintains the pro-European course set by Prime Minister Donald Tusk or moves closer to nationalist supporters aligned with figures like former US President Donald Trump.
“We are striving for victory. I said the result would be close, and it is indeed close. We have a lot of work ahead of us, and we need determination,” Trzaskowski told his supporters. Nawrocki told his supporters he was “confident of winning in the second round” and called on the far-right to support him to “save Poland.”
Far-right candidates Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun collectively received over 21% of the vote, a historically high figure. The Polish vote coincided with the presidential run-off in Romania, where Bucharest’s centrist mayor appeared on track to defeat the far-right, Eurosceptic MP George Simion.
In Poland, the president has the power to veto laws. A victory for Trzaskowski in the second round would enable Tusk’s government to implement an agenda that includes reversing judicial reforms introduced by PiS, which critics say undermined the independence of the courts. Trzaskowski has pledged to strengthen Poland’s role as a key player in European policymaking and work with the government to undo PiS’s judicial changes.
Nawrocki views the election as an opportunity to prevent Tusk from gaining absolute power and to counter the liberal values represented by Trzaskowski, who, as Warsaw’s mayor, has supported LGBTQ+ pride marches. Unlike some other Eurosceptics in Central Europe, Nawrocki supports military aid to Ukraine against Russia. However, he has tapped into anti-Ukrainian sentiment among some Poles weary of the influx of refugees.
Romanian Election
In Romania, pro-EU centrist Nicușor Dan won the presidential run-off, defeating a far-right, Eurosceptic nationalist rival who had led the first round and raised concerns about the country’s pro-Western orientation.
Dan, a 55-year-old mathematician and mayor of Bucharest, secured over 54% of the vote, compared to about 46% for George Simion, a former football hooligan turned leader of the far-right AUR party, after more than 97% of votes were counted, the Financial Times reported.
The mayor’s victory concludes months of political and economic turmoil that erupted after a previous vote was annulled due to alleged Russian interference, placing Bucharest in the crosshairs of Moscow and Washington and dividing the country over its future path.
“Elections are not about politicians, but about communities. And the community that won today wants radical changes,” Dan said after his victory. He acknowledged the anger of the “losing community” and promised reforms to combat corruption and improve the rule of law.
Simion declared a “clear victory” on behalf of the Romanian people, asserting he still trusted the accuracy of the vote count. Later, a spokesperson told the Financial Times, “We will request a recount if we have concerns about fraud.”
Simion rose to prominence due to voter anger over the authorities’ annulment of last year’s presidential election, citing alleged Russian interference in favour of another far-right nationalist candidate, Călin Georgescu, who surprisingly topped the first round of voting last November. Georgescu was barred from running again but endorsed Simion, who had stated he would make Georgescu prime minister if he won.
Dan will face the difficult task of appointing an effective new prime minister and government capable of passing necessary reforms to avoid losing attractive investor status and to secure EU funding.
Minority Government in Portugal
In Portugal, results pointed towards another minority government after the centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) party won the general election but failed to secure a parliamentary majority in a vote that saw a significant advance for a far-right populist party, the Associated Press reported.
Democratic Alliance leader and current Prime Minister Luís Montenegro said he was ready to discuss solutions with other parties. In his remarks, he thanked his supporters, his family, and the “political family” that defended him against attacks related to deals made by a company he founded before leading the party, which is now owned by his sons.
With 99.2% of votes counted, the Democratic Alliance had secured at least 89 seats in the 230-seat National Assembly. In a dramatic reflection of shifts in Portugal’s political landscape, support for the populist Chega party rose again. It garnered at least 58 seats, up from 50 last year, challenging the centre-left Socialists as Portugal’s second-largest party.
Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos announced his resignation after his party came in second, losing several seats, bringing it closer to the relatively new far-right Chega party.
Portugal’s third general election in three years on Sunday dashed hopes that the ballot would end the worst wave of political instability in decades in the EU member state of 10.6 million people.
Adding to the uncertainty, the increased support for Chega means the far-right party could potentially take second place with its focus on curbing immigration and combating corruption, challenging the centre-left Socialists.
Public frustration with Portugal’s mainstream parties has led to an increasingly fragmented political scene, challenging efforts to unify policies on pressing national issues such as immigration, housing, and the cost of living. Immigration and housing are key issues in Portugal, with Chega owing its significant success to its calls for stricter immigration policies, which resonated widely with voters.
Portugal has seen a sharp rise in immigration. In 2018, the number of legal immigrants in the country was less than half a million. By early this year, their numbers exceeded 1.5 million, many of whom are Brazilians and Asians working in the tourism and agriculture sectors.
