Egypt ranked among top countries with conflict likely to occur in 2016 according to survey by the US Committee on Foreign Relations (CFR). The survey called “Preventive Priorities Survey: 2016”, was released in December, ranking every country’s security status and its potential impact on the US.

Tier 1 category includes countries that directly threatens the US homeland and are likely to trigger US military involvement because of treaty commitments or threatens the supply of critical US strategic resources. Tier 2 includes countries of strategic importance to the US but does not involve a mutual-defence treaty commitment. Tier 3 countries could have severe humanitarian consequences but limited strategic importance to the US, according to the survey.

Egypt rose from Tier 2 countries to Tier 1 in the survey for its “increased political instability in Egypt, including terrorist attacks, particularly in the Sinai Peninsula”.

The US, Turkey, Palestine, Iraq, Syria, Libya, the EU, Afghanistan, Israel, and North Korea were other countries in the Tier 1 category. The survey attributed potential conflict in EU countries to refugees’ influx and migrants with heightened civil unrest, isolated terrorist attacks, or violence against refugees and migrants.

Tier 2 countries included Asia/Pacific area, Mexico, and Lebanon, Jordan, Yemen, Russia and Ukraine. Moreover, Tier 3 countries includes South Sudan, Venezuela, India, Pakistan, and others.

The PPS is an annual survey by CFR acts as the blueprint for US policymaking and taking early actions as conflicts worldwide unfolds. “It should endeavour to reduce the risk of war and violent instability through deliberate preventive measures while also taking steps to mitigate the potential harm should the worst happen,” CFR stated.

Concerns over the implications of growing instability and conflict in the Middle East dominate the results of the 2016 survey.