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The global jobs challenge

By Michael Spence NEW YORK: Over the past three decades, hundreds of millions of new workers have entered the global economy. They arrived with various levels of education and skill, and over time have generally gained in terms of “human capital” — and in terms of value added and income. This has brought a tremendous, and …


Closing America’s growth deficit

By Michael Spence MILAN: As the American economy continues to sputter three years after the global financial crisis erupted, one thing has become clear: the United States cannot generate higher rates of growth in GDP and employment without a change in the mix of the economy’s domestic and export-oriented components. Above all, this will require structural …


Stagnant and paralyzed

By Michael Spence MILAN: The recent dramatic declines in equity markets worldwide are a response to the interaction of two factors: economic fundamentals and policy responses — or, rather, the lack of policy responses. First, the fundamentals. Economic growth rates in the United States and Europe are low — and well below even recent expectations. Slow …


Adapt or die

By Michael Spence MILAN: In rapidly growing emerging markets, a combination of internal economic forces, supportive policies, and the shifting nature of the global economy drive high-speed and far-reaching change. The transformation of economic structures occurs so quickly that it is virtually impossible not to notice — though the complexity of the change is, at times, …


A Post-Crisis World of Risk

By Michael Spence MILAN: The global economy’s most striking feature nowadays is the magnitude and interconnectedness of the macro risks that it faces. The post-crisis period has produced a multi-speed world, as the major advanced economies — with the notable exception of Germany — struggle with low growth and high unemployment, while the main emerging-market economies …


Asia’s new growth model

By Michael Spence MILAN: Led by Asia, the share of the global economy held by emerging markets has risen steadily over recent decades. For the countries of Asia – especially its rising giants, China and India – sustainable growth is no longer part of a global challenge. Instead, it has become a national growth-strategy issue. This …


Jobs and structure in the global economy

By Michael Spence and Sandile Hlatshwayo NEW YORK: The global economy is at a crossroads as the major emerging markets (and developing countries more broadly) become systemically important, both for macroeconomic and financial stability and in their impact on other economies, including the advanced countries. Consider, for example, what has occurred over the past 20 years …


Five steps forward in 2011

By Michael Spence MILAN: The worst of the financial/economic crisis seems to be over. Asset markets performed reasonably well in 2010. Growth in the United States and parts of Europe returned. Private-sector deleveraging continued, but was counter-balanced by rising public-sector deficits and debt. And emerging-market growth returned to pre-crisis levels and appears to be sustainable, …


The risk tsunami

By Michael Spence NEW YORK: It is time for the G-20 to take seriously its mandate to agree on steps to stabilize the global economy and launch it on a more sustainable pattern of growth. Instead, the G-20 is behaving like a debating society, with the cooperative approach that it fostered at the outset of the …


America’s employment and growth challenges

By Michael Spence NEW YORK: For many, if not most, Americans, the crisis that befell them in 2008 — leading to slow growth, rising unemployment, and high anxiety among voters — appeared to spring from nowhere. Certainly, the vast majority of economists, investment analysts, financial firms, and regulators failed to see the growing risk. In fact, …


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