The possibility of a U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran presents an exceptional scenario that could redraw the contours of security and stability in the Arabian Gulf. With Iran’s internal tensions escalating and its controversial nuclear programme ongoing, the Gulf has become the epicentre of global attention—not only geopolitically, but also economically, strategically, and socially.
In the event of strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities or military bases, a potential Iranian response would represent the greatest challenge to Gulf security. Iran, equipped with advanced ballistic missiles, could target key U.S. bases such as Al Udeid in Qatar or Al Dhafra in the UAE, and may even attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, threatening international shipping and compelling Gulf states to strengthen their maritime defence capabilities. On a less conventional front, Iran could also carry out cyberattacks on vital infrastructure in Gulf countries, including energy grids and banking networks, further amplifying security risks and introducing a cyber dimension to the conflict.
On the other hand, weakening the Iranian Revolutionary Guard could reduce the threat of unconventional attacks on Gulf oil facilities, as witnessed in 2019. However, this power vacuum may provide extremist groups with opportunities to expand, complicating regional security dynamics. Gulf states, reliant on alliances with the United States, might see an increased U.S. military presence on their soil, offering additional protection but simultaneously making them direct targets in any potential escalation.
Economically, any strike on Iran would immediately drive oil prices higher, potentially surpassing $150 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz were closed. This could yield short-term gains for producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE but would expose the global economy to recessionary pressures due to rising energy costs. Alternative shipping routes and global trade would face disruptions, compounding regional and international economic strain. Conversely, Gulf states might accelerate their economic diversification strategies, as exemplified by Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the UAE’s digital transformation plans. Countries such as Qatar, with economic ties to Iran, could face challenges in natural gas exports, while Oman, maintaining its traditional neutrality, could play a pivotal role in economic and diplomatic mediation.
Internationally, such escalation could prompt China and Russia to expand their influence in the Gulf through trade agreements and investments, potentially reducing U.S. dominance and paving the way for a multipolar economic landscape. The regional investment climate may also be affected, as foreign investors could perceive the area as less attractive for sectors such as real estate, tourism, and services, despite short-term oil profits.
Politically, a strike could reinforce alignment between Gulf states and Israel, particularly in the wake of the Abraham Accords, with Iran viewed as a common threat. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have implicitly supported previous strikes, may further strengthen ties with Tel Aviv in intelligence and technology domains, despite potential domestic backlash among Arab public opinion, which largely still views Israel as a historical adversary.
Weakening Iran may also allow Iraq to emerge as a regional power, though its stability would hinge on managing the consequences of a potential Iranian collapse. Qatar risks regional isolation if it fails to adapt to these shifts, whereas Oman could maintain its mediating role in diplomatic efforts following a strike. Turkey’s and Pakistan’s regional roles should also be monitored, as their policies and interventions may be affected, further complicating the political landscape and reshaping alliances in the region.
In the long term, this scenario could open avenues for political solutions to regional conflicts such as Yemen and Lebanon, given Iran’s reduced influence. Yet the resulting strategic vacuum may spark new sectarian tensions between Sunni and Shia communities, deepening Gulf divisions. Launching diplomatic initiatives and regional conferences to secure maritime routes and protect economic stability will be essential to avoid prolonged chaos.
The future of the Arabian Gulf in the wake of any U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran is a complex mix of opportunities and risks. While it may lead to relative stability by weakening the Iranian threat, it also carries the potential for global escalation, economic shocks, and social and political challenges. The region must enhance economic resilience, develop robust regional diplomacy, and engage in comprehensive dialogue to ensure security and peace from within, rather than relying on external military solutions.
Dr Hatem Sadek – Professor at Helwan University
