During the opening session of the EFG Hermes 12th One on One Conference on Monday, investors disclosed their expectations regarding Director of MENA Strategy Simon Kitchen’s questions on the financial markets in the region and internationally.
Approximately 46% of participants said they believe oil will not rise to $100 per barrel again. Some 42% expected that it will reach that level only by 2025. Meanwhile, 13% of participants expected it to reach $30 by the end of this year, while 45% said it will reach $40. A total of 36% believe it will reach $50, and only 7% said it may reach $60.
Some 62% of participants believed the Gulf will reduce dependence on oil by 30% by 2025. An earlier survey revealed that between the period of 2004 and 2012, 44% believed oil dependence would be reduced by 2025. Further, 64% of participants believed that Saudi Arabia will move to cut down on energy subsidies.
Additionally, 44% of participants said Gulf states will impose a tax on corporate profits before the end of 2018.
Meanwhile, a total of 34% of conference participants expect the dollar price to reach EGP 9 on the formal market before the end of 2016.
Further, 36% believed it will reach EGP 10 and 29% said it will reach EGP 11. Meanwhile, 68% believe that values of the Gulf currencies will remain unchanged until 2018.
The most surprising result was that asset managers chose stock markets as the best investment option in the upcoming period, followed by gold.
Political instability was the main risk facing regional markets, according to 51% of participants. Conversely, 18% believed the main risk to be the oil price. On the global level, most participants said the main risk is China’s potential debt problems, followed by fears of a European economic slowdown.